Tornado Watch #182 has been issued for Central and Eastern OK until 11pm CDT. Threat for very large hail and tornadoes will exist across the area. Strong/Violent tornadoes will be possible across NE OK
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 179...WW 180...WW 181...
DISCUSSION...THE INITIATION OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS APPEARS LIKELY
ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE ADVECTING AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE ON 40-50 KT DEEP
LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW. AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES THROUGH A
MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SIZABLE CAPE...THE RISK FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. BY EARLY EVENING...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL CONTINUE TO ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...MAINTAINING THE RISK
FOR TORNADOES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A COUPLE OF LONG-LIVED/LONG
TRACK SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
Good afternoon folks! We are preparing for another active weather period across the Southern Plains. We had the localized tornado outbreak in Northern Texas on Wednesday that we chased and caught about 6 to 9 tornadoes from Millsap, TX to Cleburne, TX; including the one-mile wedge tornado! We are ready to head out again into the Plains to chase! Beginning tomorrow we could see the threat for some significant severe weather across the Plains, including states of Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri are all the target for a very active weekend for storms. We have seen such an unusually quiet tornado season so far, but this weekend could be the most active for supercells and tornadoes thus far this year and please heed the NWS Watches and Warnings over the next coming days.
SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook calls for significant severe weather across a large part of the Plains
Tomorrow we will be focusing on the threat of some big-time supercells across KS, NE, and into OK on Saturday. We are expecting the cap to be stronger the farther south you go along the dryline. We expect better coverage of storms across the Nebraska/Kansas border, but some of the stronger storms will be farther south in Western KS and maybe into NW OK on Saturday. Main threats appear to be extremely large hail (Baseball to Grapefruit size), due to the extreme instability of CAPE values around 4,500 JKG. Given the moderate jet in place tomorrow we expect rotating supercells and the possibility of tornadoes; a few strong (especially across West KS)
NAM 36hr 500mb Winds
850mb Winds and Height
EHI values will be nearly maxed out across SW KS. If supercells develop in this environment. We could be looking at the treat for strong tornadoes across this area.
Looking into Sunday. We could be dealing with the possibility of an outbreak situation across the Plains where all modes of severe weather will be possible. We are currently monitoring the models of the exact area at this time. But folks in Oklahoma, Kansas and Iowa need to be eyeing the situation closely. The threat will be there for extremely large hail, and tornadoes. Some tornadoes could be strong to maybe even violent across areas where shear will be maxed out along with 5,000 JKG of CAPE. This could be a very dangerous situation across the Southern Plains on Sunday and also heading into Monday where the same areas will be under the gun for significant severe weather. We are planning to target Central OK on chasing both Sunday and Monday. We urge folks to keep an eye to the skies over the weekend and please be aware that a dangerous and possibly deadly weather situation is becoming more possible this weekend into early next week!
We will be live chasing tomorrow afternoon in Kansas. We will update our forecast and blogs when we have a better idea on the exact timing of this significant weather event!