Good afternoon folks! We are preparing for another active weather period across the Southern Plains. We had the localized tornado outbreak in Northern Texas on Wednesday that we chased and caught about 6 to 9 tornadoes from Millsap, TX to Cleburne, TX; including the one-mile wedge tornado! We are ready to head out again into the Plains to chase! Beginning tomorrow we could see the threat for some significant severe weather across the Plains, including states of Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri are all the target for a very active weekend for storms. We have seen such an unusually quiet  tornado season so far, but this weekend could be the most active for supercells and tornadoes thus far this year and please heed the NWS Watches and Warnings over the next coming days.

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook calls for significant severe weather across a large part of the Plains

Tomorrow we will be focusing on the threat of some big-time supercells across KS, NE, and into OK on Saturday. We are expecting the cap to be stronger the farther south you go along the dryline. We expect better coverage of storms across the Nebraska/Kansas border, but some of the stronger storms will be farther south in Western KS and maybe into NW OK on Saturday. Main threats appear to be extremely large hail (Baseball to Grapefruit size), due to the extreme instability of CAPE values around 4,500 JKG.  Given the moderate jet in place tomorrow we expect rotating supercells and the possibility of  tornadoes; a few strong (especially across West KS)

NAM 36hr 500mb Winds

850mb Winds and Height

EHI values will be nearly maxed out across SW KS. If supercells develop in this environment. We could be looking at the treat for strong tornadoes across this area.

EHI 0-3km

Looking into Sunday. We could be dealing with the possibility of  an outbreak situation across the Plains where all modes of severe weather will be possible. We are currently monitoring the models of the exact area at this time. But folks in Oklahoma, Kansas and Iowa need to be eyeing the situation closely. The threat will be there for extremely large hail, and tornadoes. Some tornadoes could be strong to maybe even violent across areas where shear will be maxed out along with 5,000 JKG of CAPE. This could be a very dangerous situation across the Southern Plains on Sunday and also heading into Monday where the same areas will be under the gun for significant severe weather. We are planning to target Central OK on chasing both Sunday and Monday. We urge folks to keep an eye to the skies over the weekend and please be aware that a dangerous and possibly deadly weather situation is becoming more possible this weekend into early next week!

We will be live chasing tomorrow afternoon in Kansas. We will update our forecast and blogs when we have a better idea on the exact timing of this significant weather event!