Good afternoon folks! We are preparing for another active weather period across the Southern Plains. We had the localized tornado outbreak in Northern Texas on Wednesday that we chased and caught about 6 to 9 tornadoes from Millsap, TX to Cleburne, TX; including the one-mile wedge tornado! We are ready to head out again into the Plains to chase! Beginning tomorrow we could see the threat for some significant severe weather across the Plains, including states of Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri are all the target for a very active weekend for storms. We have seen such an unusually quiet tornado season so far, but this weekend could be the most active for supercells and tornadoes thus far this year and please heed the NWS Watches and Warnings over the next coming days.
SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook calls for significant severe weather across a large part of the Plains
Tomorrow we will be focusing on the threat of some big-time supercells across KS, NE, and into OK on Saturday. We are expecting the cap to be stronger the farther south you go along the dryline. We expect better coverage of storms across the Nebraska/Kansas border, but some of the stronger storms will be farther south in Western KS and maybe into NW OK on Saturday. Main threats appear to be extremely large hail (Baseball to Grapefruit size), due to the extreme instability of CAPE values around 4,500 JKG. Given the moderate jet in place tomorrow we expect rotating supercells and the possibility of tornadoes; a few strong (especially across West KS)
NAM 36hr 500mb Winds
850mb Winds and Height
EHI values will be nearly maxed out across SW KS. If supercells develop in this environment. We could be looking at the treat for strong tornadoes across this area.
Looking into Sunday. We could be dealing with the possibility of an outbreak situation across the Plains where all modes of severe weather will be possible. We are currently monitoring the models of the exact area at this time. But folks in Oklahoma, Kansas and Iowa need to be eyeing the situation closely. The threat will be there for extremely large hail, and tornadoes. Some tornadoes could be strong to maybe even violent across areas where shear will be maxed out along with 5,000 JKG of CAPE. This could be a very dangerous situation across the Southern Plains on Sunday and also heading into Monday where the same areas will be under the gun for significant severe weather. We are planning to target Central OK on chasing both Sunday and Monday. We urge folks to keep an eye to the skies over the weekend and please be aware that a dangerous and possibly deadly weather situation is becoming more possible this weekend into early next week!
We will be live chasing tomorrow afternoon in Kansas. We will update our forecast and blogs when we have a better idea on the exact timing of this significant weather event!
Winter will just not let up over much of the United States as another Winter Storm will stretch across the Midwest and even affect us in Oklahoma. It is currently May 1st and we are typing out a blog that will have the word snow in it for Oklahoma. Yes I did say SNOW! We currently have a very strong cold front centered across Western Oklahoma at the current moment that is dropping temperatures more than 50 degrees. The cold front will continue to push east across the state and the temperatures will drop from the lower 80s into the 40s and 30s tonight with a chilly north wind.
We are again expecting precipitation behind the cold front that will be in place over Northwestern Oklahoma. As the cold air continues to be pushed down into the state. Rain will change over to a freezing mix of sleet, snow and ice across Northwestern Oklahoma after 3am tonight. We are not looking at any significant accumulations, but this is very rare for this time of the year for Oklahoma. The latest date for snowfall at any location in the state is April 30th. We are likely to break that across Northwestern Oklahoma in areas like Alva, Woodward, and Hooker Oklahoma could see some minor snow accumulations.
Also, the western half of Oklahoma is under a Freeze Watch as we could see freezing temperatures as far south as the Red River! This is nearly unprecedented for this time of year. I mean, this is MAY! We should be talking about severe weather and tornadoes, not SNOW!