WeatherStorm | Oklahoma Weather Blog

Multi-Day Severe Weather Event Ahead!

Stephen Jones — Fri, 17 May 2013 18:45:37 +0000

Good afternoon folks! We are preparing for another active weather period across the Southern Plains. We had the localized tornado outbreak in Northern Texas on Wednesday that we chased and caught about 6 to 9 tornadoes from Millsap, TX to Cleburne, TX; including the one-mile wedge tornado! We are ready to head out again into the Plains to chase! Beginning tomorrow we could see the threat for some significant severe weather across the Plains, including states of Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri are all the target for a very active weekend for storms. We have seen such an unusually quiet tornado season so far, but this weekend could be the most active for supercells and tornadoes thus far this year and please heed the NWS Watches and Warnings over the next coming days.

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook calls for significant severe weather across a large part of the Plains

Tomorrow we will be focusing on the threat of some big-time supercells across KS, NE, and into OK on Saturday. We are expecting the cap to be stronger the farther south you go along the dryline. We expect better coverage of storms across the Nebraska/Kansas border, but some of the stronger storms will be farther south in Western KS and maybe into NW OK on Saturday. Main threats appear to be extremely large hail (Baseball to Grapefruit size), due to the extreme instability of CAPE values around 4,500 JKG. Given the moderate jet in place tomorrow we expect rotating supercells and the possibility of tornadoes; a few strong (especially across West KS)

NAM 36hr 500mb Winds

850mb Winds and Height

EHI values will be nearly maxed out across SW KS. If supercells develop in this environment. We could be looking at the treat for strong tornadoes across this area.

EHI 0-3km

Looking into Sunday. We could be dealing with the possibility of an outbreak situation across the Plains where all modes of severe weather will be possible. We are currently monitoring the models of the exact area at this time. But folks in Oklahoma, Kansas and Iowa need to be eyeing the situation closely. The threat will be there for extremely large hail, and tornadoes. Some tornadoes could be strong to maybe even violent across areas where shear will be maxed out along with 5,000 JKG of CAPE. This could be a very dangerous situation across the Southern Plains on Sunday and also heading into Monday where the same areas will be under the gun for significant severe weather. We are planning to target Central OK on chasing both Sunday and Monday. We urge folks to keep an eye to the skies over the weekend and please be aware that a dangerous and possibly deadly weather situation is becoming more possible this weekend into early next week!

We will be live chasing tomorrow afternoon in Kansas. We will update our forecast and blogs when we have a better idea on the exact timing of this significant weather event!

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Incredible Mile Wide Tornado Caught last night in Texas!

Stephen Jones — Thu, 16 May 2013 15:42:01 +0000

Taken by Stephen Jones. All together we saw a total of 6 tornadoes yesterday but we saw the incredible Hood County, TX tornado that ripped through Granbury, TX. The preliminary rating is currently an EF-4. Our video has popped on CNN. Our hearts and prayers for the folks in Texas!

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Snow/ Freeze to hit Oklahoma in MAY!

Stephen Jones — Wed, 01 May 2013 22:57:30 +0000

Winter will just not let up over much of the United States as another Winter Storm will stretch across the Midwest and even affect us in Oklahoma. It is currently May 1st and we are typing out a blog that will have the word snow in it for Oklahoma. Yes I did say SNOW! We currently have a very strong cold front centered across Western Oklahoma at the current moment that is dropping temperatures more than 50 degrees. The cold front will continue to push east across the state and the temperatures will drop from the lower 80s into the 40s and 30s tonight with a chilly north wind.

We are again expecting precipitation behind the cold front that will be in place over Northwestern Oklahoma. As the cold air continues to be pushed down into the state. Rain will change over to a freezing mix of sleet, snow and ice across Northwestern Oklahoma after 3am tonight. We are not looking at any significant accumulations, but this is very rare for this time of the year for Oklahoma. The latest date for snowfall at any location in the state is April 30th. We are likely to break that across Northwestern Oklahoma in areas like Alva, Woodward, and Hooker Oklahoma could see some minor snow accumulations.

Also, the western half of Oklahoma is under a Freeze Watch as we could see freezing temperatures as far south as the Red River! This is nearly unprecedented for this time of year. I mean, this is MAY! We should be talking about severe weather and tornadoes, not SNOW!

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Drought is Improving in Oklahoma!!

Stephen Jones — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 14:25:18 +0000

Drought conditions are greatly improving across Oklahoma over the last couple of months since beneficial rains have fallen over the state. Some areas have seen over 15 inches of rain over the last 30 days. Some areas such as Oklahoma City and Norman has seen the best improvement going from a D5 Level drought to a D1 Level. This is the lowest level before not being in a drought at all!!

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Strong Tornadoes Possible; Outbreak across OK/MO/KS

Stephen Jones — Wed, 17 Apr 2013 13:21:40 +0000

Very active weather in-store for many today, especially across Central Oklahoma where we just had a warm front push through the Norman area just moments ago. The atmosphere is really setting up stage for what could be a really active/dangerous afternoon and into the evening hours as warm/moist air continues to pump from the south. If you had a list about everything today to go “right” for a major severe weather event, all the ingredients would have been checked off. All of the questions have been answered this morning in terms of early morning convection and warm front placement. Air in the warm sector is prime for supercell development by late afternoon and into the early evening hours.

SPC has a Moderate Risk for some very Severe Storms with the risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes across the area in red!

Risk for the Strongest Tornadoes will be in the areas of the hatched red.

Dewpoints will be in the widespread upper 60s today across the warm sector of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri with a screaming low level jet overhead coming from the south. This, with a jet stream higher up in the atmosphere coming out of the west will create significant wind shear across the warm sector, giving the violent updrafts deep wind shear. We are also expecting “extreme” instability today with CAPE over 3,000 JKG to setup along the warm front today. The DFW Sounding already shows CAPE already nearing 3,500 just to the south of Moderate Risk moving north and will in place over the Oklahoma City Metro area by late afternoon.

We will be chasing LIVE this afternoon on our streams and targeting Oklahoma today. We urge folks across OK, KS, TX, and MO to watch the weather closely today as conditions are becoming increasingly ripe for a “Significant Tornado Event” today and a likely severe weather outbreak with extreme hail (size of Baseballs to Grapefuits) across a large region today. We will be watching the situation very closely as cities such as Oklahoma City, Moore, Norman, Tulsa, and Stillwater could be in the direct path of extremely dangerous supercells capable of producing tornadoes, and a few strong tornadoes close to 4-9pm tonight.

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Review Your Severe Weather Safety

Stephen Jones — Wed, 17 Apr 2013 12:03:11 +0000

Today could very well be a very dangerous day across Oklahoma, especially in and around the Oklahoma City Metro!

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Significant Severe Weather Expected Tomorrow

Stephen Jones — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 20:14:05 +0000

We are currently looking into the risk for a significant severe weather event for tomorrow across the region. However, several questions still remain on what type and how severe the weather could be tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a “Moderate” Risk for severe weather across Oklahoma for tomorrow. This typically means that they are thinking that conditions will be very favorable for severe weather across that area, and the threat for significant severe weather. Tomorrow has a the potential to be a very dangerous day due to the fact that the greatest risk of severe weather will cover very populated areas across Oklahoma and into North Texas. However, model guidance is unusually disagreeing with one another for tomorrow’s setup, which could make or break a forecast.

Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook.

Forecasting this event has been the most difficult by far, due to the huge question of whether “if” or “when” the front that is currently stationed over Southern Oklahoma will begin to lift northward in response to some very moist/warm air coming from the south. A few models do lift this warm air as far north as the I-70 corridor in Kansas. However, much like what happened last week, a very shallow cold front will be moving down from the Colorado Rockies and could get trapped underneath the warm air riding above the cold air at the surface. This will likely limit the significant severe potential for areas north of the stationary front. The other scenario of the warm front beginning to lift northward quite rapidly allowing for the surface layer to recover and become very unstable could mean a very scary day across the warm sector ahead of a dryline in Oklahoma.

The NAM Model Solution is showing a much faster evolution of the shallow cold front moving across Oklahoma by tomorrow evening. This could likely hinder the worst of the severe weather threat.

The GFS Solution shows the warm front rapidly retreating northward into KS, leaving the atmosphere extremely favorable for Supercells and Tornadoes, some maybe strong.

Another one of the questions we have for tomorrow will be the amount of cloud cover/precipitation in the that could inhibit the buildup of instability and fuel for supercell thunderstorms and also the threat that forcing could be very strong and force all the storms into a massive squall line along the I-44 corridor that will be capable of damaging winds and large hail.

Time will tell closer to the morning hours about tomorrow, but it is best to prepare for the threat of worst case that could be a very significant event across the region tomorrow with very long track supercells capable of producing very large hail (baseballs or larger), and tornadoes; some could be strong given the very strong low level jet that will be increasing within time tomorrow afternoon across Texas and Oklahoma. A few of the hi resolution models do paint a very scary picture with storm relative helicities over 450, which means that if storms are able to stay discrete, they could become very powerful and produce tornadoes. CAPE values will be over 2,500 JKG over a very large area of the warm sector with a screaming low level jet pumping in deep moisture with dewpoints in the upper 60s. With the significant tornado parameter bulls-eyed directly over Central Oklahoma tomorrow.

SREF Significant Tornado Parameter shows the worst case scenario over Oklahoma tomorrow if storms can remain discrete and the cold air stays to the north.

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Earthquake Swarm across Central Oklahoma this Morning

Stephen Jones — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 13:51:25 +0000

Good Morning everyone! It seemed like it didn’t want to stop shaking last night as we witnessed 5 earthquakes last night that were all centered over Central Oklahoma. We also had two 4.0 magnitude or greater earthquakes all within 8 hours of themselves. Back on November 6th, 2011 we also had a 5.6 earthquake that was centered near Praque, OK that were followed by several more days of earthquakes. That also reminds me that the very next day on Nov. 7th, 2011.. We got to witness a “quakenado” right here in Oklahoma. Yes! A tornado was on the ground in the same state that an earthquake occurred all in one day. Oklahoma just never gets boring! We do expect more earthquakes to continue throughout the day and possibly month across the region.

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More Severe and Winter Weather for Oklahoma?

Stephen Jones — Sun, 14 Apr 2013 04:09:26 +0000

Apparently Winter does not ever want to leave Oklahoma. We are currently watching the next system to move into Oklahoma by early next week bringing the chance for severe weather and yes, more winter weather. Computer models are beginning to show more cold air making its way down from Colorado and the Rockies into Northwestern Oklahoma by Wednesday. This seems very similar to what happened last week when we were expecting a severe weather day for Oklahoma turned into a “freak” ice storm for parts of Western and Central Oklahoma. Models again, indicate another crashing cold front on Tuesday as another surface low pressure develops in the Texas Panhandle and moves along the Red River. This will push the cold air wrapping around the low pressure as it moves off to the north and east.

Although this time any winter weather will likely be confined to the northwest part of Oklahoma and into Southwestern Kansas and does not to appear to be as significant as the last storm system.

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Light Rain Showers expected early this morning

Stephen Jones — Sat, 13 Apr 2013 05:16:17 +0000

We are currently watching the radar and due to an upper shortwave disturbance moving across Oklahoma, we are seeing some light rain showers starting to pop-up on radar this early morning. We are expecting this trend to continue into the daylight hours of Saturday, especially across northern half of Oklahoma. Rainfall amounts will be light and very much scattered. Most areas that do see rain will see only .10 to .25 inches of rain. I would not be surprised that Oklahoma City could see some light rain showers by daybreak. Most of the rain though will stay confined to the northern counties.

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